亚博app下载官网下载-准备迎接第二个特别世纪 Prepare for the dawn of a second special century

本文摘要:thethesisofrobertgordon’smagisterialbooktheriseandfallofamericangrowth, standsinsharpcontrasttothetechnologicaloptimismthatbubblesoutofsiliconvalley.theargumentisthattheyearsfrom 1870 to 1970 were the spa nwhenbenjamindisraeliwasprimeministerandwholivedtoseedwardheathindowningstreetwouldhavewitnesss drawntransportgivewaytocarsande serviceswerelargelyuseless是shewouldhaveseencuresfoundformostinfectiousdiseasesandexperiencedtheintroductionofelectriclight, indoorplumbingandcolourtelevision .罗伯特戈登(Robert Gordon )的权威著作《美国快速增长的固定翼》 (Theriseandfallofamericangrowth )的论点是硅谷发起的根据本书,从1870年到1970年是“特别是世纪”。

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thethesisofrobertgordon’smagisterialbooktheriseandfallofamericangrowth, standsinsharpcontrasttothetechnologicaloptimismthatbubblesoutofsiliconvalley.theargumentisthattheyearsfrom 1870 to 1970 were the spa nwhenbenjamindisraeliwasprimeministerandwholivedtoseedwardheathindowningstreetwouldhavewitnesss drawntransportgivewaytocarsande serviceswerelargelyuseless是shewouldhaveseencuresfoundformostinfectiousdiseasesandexperiencedtheintroductionofelectriclight, indoorplumbingandcolourtelevision .罗伯特戈登(Robert Gordon )的权威著作《美国快速增长的固定翼》 (Theriseandfallofamericangrowth )的论点是硅谷发起的根据本书,从1870年到1970年是“特别是世纪”。本杰明迪斯利兼任英国首相出生,在世时看到爱德华希斯连接唐宁街的人目睹了马拉交通被汽车和飞机取代。

在医疗服务基本多才多艺的时候出生的她目睹了许多传染病化疗方法的发现,经历了电灯、室内污水管道以及彩电的诞生。The past 50 years,according to Professor Gordon, have been“dazzling butdisappointing”. wearedazzledbecauseourattentionisfocusedonadvancesinentertainment, communicationsandinformationtechnology.thedisappointmentispartlystatistical-productivitygrowthasslowed.and looking it,he argues therehavebeennoadvancesinmaterials,fueltechnologiesorfoodproductionanddistributioncomparabletothoseofterials我们眼花缭乱的是娱乐沮丧在某种程度上是统计资料上的,生产率的提高速度在上升。除了IT以外,他还指出原材料、燃料技术、食品生产、流通与“特别是世纪”汉密尔顿的变化很少。Boeing’s first 747 flew in 1969,and today’sjumbojetsarerecognisablysimilar.thegreatblockbusterdrugshave, it seems alreadybeendiscovered.whileusproductivityenjoyedaspurtinthe 1990 s,asdigitalinnovationstransformedourlives, thespecialcenturyisunlikelytoberepeated.givenanageingpopulationandaninadequateeducationalsystem, asignificantincreaseinamericanlivingstandardsshouldnotbeexpected .波音747飞机是在1969年发射的,今天的大型喷气式飞机依然与之相似。

也许找到了最好的关注药。随着数字想法改变我们的生活,美国的生产力在1990年代经常出现井喷,但“特别是世纪”无法再现。考虑到老龄化和教育体制不完善,预计美国的生活水平将明显下降。progressinintroducingroboticsintoserviceactivitiesis“glaciallyslow”, observesprofgordon.amazonemploysproductpicket deliverydriversstillmostlyloadandunloadtheirtrucksmanually.scepticalofdriverless heaskswhatcommuterswillactuallydowiththetimetheydonothavetospendbehindthewheel.hisscepticismwillnodoubthavebeencompoundedbase ONE OF Google’Sdriverlesscars .戈登教授指出,在将机器人引入服务业方面的进展“极其缓慢”。

亚马逊(Amazon )依然采用产品选择师。许多业主司机仍然手动装载停泊。

他对无人驾驶汽车持推测态度,问他们如果上班族必须是自己的司机,那期间他们什么也做不了。最近,谷歌连续发生无人驾驶汽车事故的同意不会加剧他的担忧。Yet,if not much seems to have happened, itisperhapsbecauseweseethatmuchisyettocome.nogreateffortofimaginationisrequiredtovisualisemachinesthatunloadcasksofbeerors tack fwetrustrobotstoundertakesurgery, whyshouldtheynotofferpedicuresorcuthairaspeoplebecomemoreeeeer perhapsthefutureofprogressliesintheapplicationofittothingsthatdons 我们不需要想象机器接过啤酒桶,把行李放在超市货架上的场景。如果我们信任机器人进行手术,人工更便宜,机器更便宜的时候,为什么机器人不想接受足部治疗和理发服务? 未来的变革可能是将IT应用于乍一看和IT关系不大的东西。

suchopportunitiesareoftwokinds.computerscannowreplacehumanoperativesinwell-definedrepetitivetasks.examplesincludetasks nveyas the robo-adviserasportfoliomanagerandthedigitaldoctor.manytraditionalmiddle-classoccupationswillbeelies计算机现在正在进行明确的重复工作例如,计算机化产权转让给律师、机器人顾问(如资产组经理)和数字医生。许多传统中产阶级的职业会出局。The more subtle,and perhaps more profound, developmentisthecapacityofdigitalprocessingtoaidthediscoveryofthingsthatwillformthebasisofnewtechnologies.genesequencingang d tureofmedicine.progressinbatterytechnologyisadvancingbyleapsandboundsthankstotheanalyticcapability nthehandsoftoday’s researches nthe「specialcentury”、perhapsitwillbecomewirelessinthenexes基因序列分析和大数据有可能改变药物的未来。多亏了今天的研究者控制的分析能力,电池技术的发展取得了飞跃性的进展。

如果世界在“特别世纪”构建有线连接,那么可能在下一个“特别世纪”的世界构建无线连接。anddonotunderestimatetheincreasingspeedatwhichinnovationsareadopted.benjaminfranklindiscoveredelectricityin 1752 andrichardtted the Puffing Devil, tooktotheroadsofcornwallin 1801.butitwasonlytowardstheendofthespecialcenturythatelectricityandcarswereavailabletomosthousehouse asso ldin 2007 and today 1.5 bnare inuse .不要高估用于获得创造力的每日速度。本杰明富兰克林于1752年发现了电,理查德崔维斯制造的蒸汽机车Puffing Devil于1801年在康沃尔郡旅行。

但是,直到“特别是世纪”晚些时候,电和汽车才迁到千户。第一部智能手机于2007年上市,现在有数十五亿用户。thelimitstoproductivitygrowtharesetonlybythelimitstohumaninventiveness .生产率迅速增加的无限大只是各不相同的人类创造力的无限大。

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